Early Warning Definitions & Calculations
- Meaghen Spencer (Unlicensed)
- Nancy Nguyen
- 1.1 Background
- 1.2 Early Warning Indicators
- 1.3 Definitions & Calculations
- 1.3.1 Attendance Risk
- 1.3.2 Discipline Risk
- 1.3.3 Suspension Risk
- 1.3.4 GPA Risk
- 1.3.5 Ds & Fs (Most Recent FINAL Marking Period)
- 1.3.6 SBA Risk (ELA & Math)
- 1.3.7 District Graduation Risk
- 1.3.8 A-G Ready
- 1.4 Student Risk List
- 2 Bibliography & Research
Background
The purpose of DataZone’s Early Warning (EW) is to identify students most at risk of dropping out or not completing high school on time. With that as the goal, there are some key assumptions about which we should be explicit. Researchers in the field of early warning indicators confirm that a student doesn’t become at-risk the moment s/he hits a specific threshold indicator. Dropping out should be considered an extended process rather than a single event. In some cases these risk factors may appear very early in a student’s life and are likely driven by multiple factors. Some factors are individual to the child, others are more reflective of the community or society at large. As such, the drop out process will vary significantly between students and will consist of different pathways to dropping out. It is also important to remember that the data used to measure student risk factors is imperfect. Many variables overlap with one another, some variables are more susceptible to being of poor quality, and the predictive power of variables varies. These limitations should not prevent the use of this information, but offer implications for how we communicate about the EWIS and its intended use.
In alignment with and supporting a Multi-Tiered System of Support (MTSS), the EW dashboards will alert educators about at-risk students as early as possible so that they can begin the process of identification and intervention. Designing programs and interventions around the Early Warning indicators will help to ensure that interventions are designed and implemented at the student, classroom, and school level to provide targeted support based on student needs.
Early Warning Indicators
The EW Indicators are based on research-based thresholds outlined below. The thresholds are binary - represented as a High Risk - Low Risk categorization.
Definitions & Calculations
Below are the definitions for each Risk Indicator available. Terms and definitions in light grey text are currently in development.
Terms | Definition | Period | Threshold | Detailed Definition |
Attendance Risk | % of Days Missed | Year to Date | High < = 90% | The Attendance Risk indicator highlights students who have missed 10% or more days of schools so far in the current school year. |
Discipline Risk | Count of Referrals | Year to Date | High > 5 incidents | The Discipline Risk indicator identifies students who have been cited for any disciplinary incident so far in the current school year. |
Suspension Risk | Count of ISS + OSS | Year to Date | High > 1 suspension | The Suspension Risk indicator identifies students who have been cited for a disciplinary incident warranting suspension or expulsion so far in the current school year. |
GPA Risk | GPA Value | Cumulative | High < 2.0 | The GPA Risk indicator identifies students with cumulative GPAs below 2.0. |
Ds & Fs (Most Recent FINAL Marking Period) | Count of Ds and Fs | Last grading period | High > 0 | The Ds & Fs Risk factor identifies students who are receiving poor marks and are therefore at-risk of not graduating on time. |
SBA Risk (ELA & Math) | Proficiency Band | Last taken | High < Met | The SBA Risk indicator for both ELA and Math identifies students who have scored “Standard Not Met” or “Standard Nearly Met” on the most recent Smarter Balanced Assessment. The scaled score is provided so that a student’s performance can be more deeply examined. The scaled scores are color-coded based on “Standard Not Met” or “Standard Nearly Met”. If a student has a zero in this column, it means that a score is not currently available. |
District Graduation Risk(Pending) | On/Off Track Status | BOY, MOY, EOY | High = Off Track, Moderately Off Track, Somewhat Off Track | Under development Students who are Off Track, Moderately Off Track, and Somewhat Off Track are considered High Risk. The thresholds for each status are determined by the district for Beginning of Year, Middle of Year, and End of Year credit counts. |
A-G Ready |
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| Definition under development. |
Student Risk List
The Student Risk List now includes a slicer on the right side of the page that allows users to select which risk to include or exclude. This slicer can be used in conjunction with the other filter tools on the left side of the page. Users can also search for a student or filter the Student Risk List by teacher/staff.
